Optimists: It could have beenworse; Pessimists: It could have been better Dispositional optimism and pessimism and counterfactual thinking

a r t i c l e i n f o Optimism and pessimism are cognitive expectancies regarding future events, whereas counterfactual thinking is the cognitive process of imagining alternatives to events that occurred in the past. The purpose of this study was to conceptualize dispositional optimism and pessimism within the context of norm theory and examine relationships between dispositional optimism and pessimism and counterfactual thinking. Undergraduate students (N = 833) completed measures of counterfactual thinking and optimism and pessimism. After controlling for the effects of positive and negative affect, it was found that downward counterfactual thinking (imagining how things could have been worse) was associated with optimism and that upward styles of counterfactual thinking (imagining how things could have been better) were associated with pessimism. These results suggest that thinking about past events is consistent with expectations about the future. 1. Dispositional optimism and pessimism Optimism may be defined as having positive expectancies for the future (Scheier, Carver, & Bridges, 1994), and it has been linked with many positive outcomes, including healthy coping strategies (Scheier, Weintraub, & Carver, 1986) and higher levels of subjective well-being, better physical health, persistence in education, higher incomes, and has found that optimism and pessimism are two separate constructs. Carver and Scheier (1998) offered a theoretical framework for optimism rooted in values-expectancy theory as generalized positive outcome expectancy. The purpose of this study was to conceptualize dispositional optimism and pessimism within the context of norm theory and examine relationships between dispositional optimism and pessimism and counterfactual thinking. 2. Norm theory Norm theory (Kahneman & Miller, 1986) contends that reactions to an event are strongly influenced by the perceived normality of the event; thus, events that are perceived as being more abnormal will generally provoke stronger reactions. Norms, or standards of judgment, are either retrieved from pre-existing expectancies or they are constructed in an ad-hoc manner. Within the framework of norm theory, dispositional optimism and pessimism would perhaps best be understood as the dispositional tendency toward more positive or negative pre-existing expectancies for the future. Norms deal with reality – experiences of current events and memories of past events – but norm theory contends that, especially when norms are challenged, individuals also mentally simulate alternatives to reality in a process called counterfactual thinking (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982). 3. Counterfactual thinking If dispositional optimism and pessimism are general expectancies for the future, counterfactual thinking is cognition …